← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Fri, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 40% | 42% | 2.37 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 31% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.10 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1647.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1460.13 | 1583.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.07 | 43.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 19.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.83 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |