← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 52% | 64% | 1.73 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
| Naval win | 21% | 15% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1445.58 | 1709.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.46 | -22.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 23.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.61 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |