← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 62% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Leiria win | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1542.39 | 1423.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.24 | -31.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 15.96 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.39 |
| state index | 0.08 | -1.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |