← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 72% | 81% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 9% | 4% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 242.00 | 1642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1738.63 | 1464.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.98 | -9.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 41.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |