← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 43% | 53% | 2.15 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Academica win | 27% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1498.09 | 1458.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.46 | 5.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 25.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |