← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Fri, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 53% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 20% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1576.42 | 1528.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.14 | 7.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.35 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |