← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 55% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +7% |
| Naval win | 18% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 897.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1604.77 | 1453.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.68 | 13.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |