← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 38% | 31% | 2.40 | fair |
| Setubal win | 32% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1628.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.41 | 1554.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.25 | 36.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 16.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.68 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |