← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Fri, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 46% | 51% | 2.05 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Leiria win | 25% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1400.40 | 1523.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.20 | 29.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 9.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.41 | 1.73 |
| state index | -1.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |