← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Fri, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 44% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1515.61 | 1497.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.06 | 13.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |