← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 35% | 39% | 2.60 | fair |
| Naval win | 35% | 28% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1442.01 | 1562.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.67 | 30.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 19.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |