← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 50% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 22% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1534.85 | 1495.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |