← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 39% | 52% | 2.37 | value: +24% |
| Leiria win | 32% | 24% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1436.41 | 1533.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.55 | 5.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 8.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 1.55 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |