← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 50% | 49% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
| Leixoes win | 21% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1555.94 | 1508.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.18 | -1.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |