← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Leiria win | 24% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1484.16 | 1447.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.38 | -15.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.42 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |