← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 50% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Setubal win | 22% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 869.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1605.72 | 1504.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.03 | -16.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |