← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 42% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Academica win | 28% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1600.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1474.51 | 1452.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.86 | 19.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.06 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |