← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 55% | 55% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Naval win | 19% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1454.04 | 1749.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.61 | -4.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 19.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.89 |
| state index | -0.23 | 1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |