← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 41% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +9% |
| Boavista win | 30% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1509.27 | 1530.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.01 | 30.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.22 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |