← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Fri, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 53% | 69% | 1.80 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 13% | 3.30 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 959.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1521.03 | 1813.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.76 | -21.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| league points | 26.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.44 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |