← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Mon, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 52% | 65% | 1.75 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
| Naval win | 21% | 15% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1518.64 | 1440.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.42 | -31.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.94 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |