← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 55% | 46% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Leixoes win | 18% | 30% | 5.25 | value: +58% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1540.64 | 1516.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.68 | 13.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |