← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 48% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 24% | 18% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1586.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1523.62 | 1481.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.46 | 1.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |