← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 46% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 26% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1583.22 | 1744.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.71 | -3.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.76 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.92 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |