← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Fri, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 40% | 48% | 2.35 | value: +13% |
| Est Amadora win | 30% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 853.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1486.90 | 1607.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.68 | -5.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |