← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Mon, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 46% | 39% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Boavista win | 26% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1518.69 | 1536.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.31 | 36.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |