← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 41% | 54% | 2.20 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 29% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leixoes | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1579.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1509.17 | 1489.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.45 | -0.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| league points | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |