← Primeira Liga 2007-08 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 40% | 30% | 2.30 | fair |
| Academica win | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 42% | 3.10 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1445.41 | 1454.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.42 | 27.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| league points | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.31 | 1.00 |
| state index | -1.57 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |