← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 72% | 72% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 10% | 8% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1717.46 | 1563.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.51 | 12.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 65.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 1.69 |
| state index | 1.61 | 0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |