← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 48% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | value: +3% |
| CD Nacional win | 25% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 596.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1576.08 | 1500.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.86 | -7.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 49.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.31 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |