← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 84% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.00 | fair |
| Aves win | 7% | 4% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 688.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1721.97 | 1423.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.19 | -3.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.00 |
| league points | 66.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 0.76 |
| state index | 1.10 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |