← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 39% | 33% | 2.40 | fair |
| Naval win | 35% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1456.42 | 1393.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.41 | -18.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 32.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.72 |
| state index | -1.08 | -1.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |