← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 38% | 23% | 2.50 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 35% | 50% | 2.60 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1474.40 | 1518.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.64 | 17.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |