← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 77% | 88% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 9% | 6.00 | fair |
| Academica win | 7% | 3% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 323.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1694.72 | 1414.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.11 | -2.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| league points | 64.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 0.90 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |