← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira Mar win | 42% | 35% | 2.25 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 31% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1416.52 | 1504.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.29 | 3.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 22.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |