← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 57% | 73% | 1.57 | value: +14% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 16% | 3.60 | fair |
| Setubal win | 18% | 11% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 316.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1397.66 | 1690.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.61 | 2.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 21.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.18 |
| state index | -1.10 | 1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |