← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 56% | 69% | 1.61 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.50 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 18% | 11% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1320.00 | 681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1500.30 | 1726.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.31 | 4.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 40.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.32 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |