← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 44% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 28% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1489.10 | 1428.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.14 | 13.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.79 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |