← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 54% | 63% | 1.72 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
| Naval win | 20% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1521.68 | 1452.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.60 | -20.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 39.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |