← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 54% | 43% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 20% | 28% | 4.80 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1434.09 | 1463.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.17 | -1.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 22.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |