← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 56% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 18% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1554.47 | 1468.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.99 | -23.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 46.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.14 |
| state index | 0.47 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |