← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 76% | 87% | 1.20 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
| Setubal win | 8% | 3% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1707.95 | 1400.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.11 | 0.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 59.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 0.78 |
| state index | 1.50 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |