← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 42% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 30% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 582.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1557.82 | 1562.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.94 | 27.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 43.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.70 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |