← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 51% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +11% |
| Aves win | 22% | 17% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1511.97 | 1443.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.24 | 22.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |