← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 74% | 73% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 9% | 8% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 673.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1721.61 | 1493.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.31 | -22.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| league points | 62.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.30 |
| state index | 1.14 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |