← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 43% | 53% | 2.10 | value: +12% |
| Academica win | 29% | 20% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1471.76 | 1417.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.75 | 4.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.93 |
| state index | -1.03 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |