← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 76% | 76% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
| Naval win | 8% | 8% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 308.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1687.43 | 1456.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.46 | -18.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 58.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.92 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |