← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 40% | 39% | 2.25 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 36% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1400.57 | 1472.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.96 | -31.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 20.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.70 | -1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |