← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 46% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Aves win | 24% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1468.76 | 1431.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.01 | 7.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| league points | 31.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.73 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |