← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 52% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 21% | 19% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1486.31 | 1461.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.28 | -25.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 32.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |